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 | The GVCdtLAB conference on March 13, 2025 underlined the irreversible turning point in Canada-US trade relations.
Faced with unpredictable US tariffs, the experts present confirmed a historic break in the economic partnership that has bound the two nations until now. The discussions were rich and the approaches diverse, but among the highlights, let us remember : Diversification: Massive tariffs (steel, aluminium, energy) force Canada to diversify its markets. Immediate effects: Significant economic uncertainty and investment paralysis already perceptible. Infrastructure investment: The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Corridor, which is particularly vulnerable, urgently needs to modernise its infrastructure. Data science: Evidence-based decision-making (Digital Twin) is becoming essential to anticipate future crises. Neutral entity: Transport, trade and public decision-makers need a neutral entity to ensure the governance and secure sharing of strategic economic data.
Canada must now rethink its economic future by proposing audacious, data-driven policy responses. |
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| | | | | | | The Bank of Canada's recent key rate cut comes against an uncertain economic backdrop, marked by trade tensions. In « Macroeconomic Impacts of a Canada-U.S. Tariff War », researchers Julien Martin, full professor at UQAM, kevin Moran, associate professor at Université Laval and Dalibor Stevanovic, full professor at UQAM, all three CIRANO researchers and fellows, highlight the macroeconomic effects of a tariff war between Canada and the United States using conditional forecasts from a VAR model. |
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| | | | As trade tensions with the United States intensify, diversifying export markets has become essential. Quebec’s agri-food SMEs face major financial challenges in breaking into international markets. In a webinar presented in partnership with MAPAQ, Josée St-Pierre (UQTR, CIRANO) and Annie Royer (Université Laval, CIRANO) will share the findings of a study addressing these financial issues, along with a practical planning tool. Two renowned entrepreneurs, Chantal Van Winden (CEO of Oliméga) and Laura Boivin (CEO of Grizzly), will also share their export success strategies. |
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| | | While the dynamics of global trade are being redefined, uncertainty remains about the microeconomic impacts for Canadian industries and transportation. Stay informed with the dtDispatch newsletter, offering the latest research and insights on trade, economic, and transport metrics from the SLGL dataHub, the digital twin of the GVCdtLab, a CIRANO initiative. |
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| | | Ingrid Peignier (CIRANO) and Lota D. Tamini (Université Laval, CIRANO), took part in the Pôle bioalimentaire's annual Rendez-vous, which brought together over 145 people from research, industry, government departments, students and the community. Against a backdrop of trade tensions with the United States, Lota D. Tamini presented a lecture on the impact of trade barriers on food processing in Quebec. Ingrid Peignier moderated a panel discussion on Reducing dependence on the U.S. market: what options are available? |
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| | | | | | | Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin, Professor at Polytechnique Montréal, CIRANO Researcher, Fellow and CEO, and Ingrid Peignier, Senior Director of Partnerships and Research Valorization at CIRANO, took part on March 18 in a conference entitled « Research and Innovation: Quebec's Competitiveness Goes International », given by Luc-Alain Giraldeau, Director General, Institut national de la recherche scientifique (INRS). |
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| | | As every year, CIRANO organises its annual researchers' meeting. It's a unique opportunity to get together, welcome new members of the research community and discuss current and future projects. It's also a great time to highlight the contribution of CIRANO researchers, who contribute every day to the advancement of knowledge in the economic evaluation of decisions concerning major societal issues, and for the development and evaluation of public policies. |
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| | | | | | | | | Taking action against climate change will be expensive, but doing nothing will cost even more. Yet our climate policies seem to be a chaos of contradictory ideas: should we rely on the commitment of citizens and businesses, impose drastic restrictions, massively finance the transition or rely on technological innovation? Christian Gollier offers us a clear and rational reflection on the possible solutions. |
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| | | The 4th edition of “Les Femmes en Économie” will be held on April 11 on the Université Laval campus. This year's guest speaker will be Nicole Fortin, full professor at the University of British Columbia (UBC) and CIRANO Associate Researcher and Fellow. She will present her study “Gender differences in career progress among PhDs in economics”. The event will once again be attended by Julie Gingras, Deputy Minister of Finance of Quebec |
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| | | This workshop is addressed to researchers and PhD students in economics interested in natural resource and environmental economics. This workshop will feature Stephen Salant, Professor at University of Michigan, et Gerard Van der Meijden, Professor at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. |
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| | | Whether it's a question of macroeconomic, financial or climatic risks weighing on the economy, how do partners and researchers approach this issue in their respective fields? How can risk scenarios be constructed? How can their integration help decision-making? This activity, reserved for CIRANO partners will be an opportunity to learn about and exchange ideas on these issues in various field. |
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| | | This interdisciplinary day will close the CIREQ-CIRANO-RRECQ Workshops on Environmental and Natural Resource Economics. Karel Mayrand, President and CEO at Foundation of Greater Montreal, Nessa Ghassemi-Bakhtiari, PhD candidate at UQAM, Laura Sims (University of Saint-Boniface), Peter Graham, multidisciplinary researcher at Concordia University, will share their work on this theme. |
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| | | In this webinar, Mélissa La Haye, CFA, Vice President, CIO Office, Public Markets Strategy & Solutions at Fiera Capital, Benoit Desgroseillers, CRHA, Vice-President of Talent Development at Finance Montréal, and other representatives of the Bourstad project partner will present the different careers that the financial services industry offers to graduates of the three levels of education, and the pathways that lead to them. |
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| | | The 42nd edition of the Jean-Yves-Rivard Symposium will be held on May 1 in the amphitheatre of the CHUM Research Centre, under the theme « Entre public et privé : le système de santé du Québec à la croisée de chemins ». The symposium is organized by the École de santé publique de l'Université de Montréal (ESPUM), under the scientific direction of Olivier Jacques (Université de Montréal, CIRANO), in collaboration with CIRANO and the Centre de recherche en santé publique (CReSP). |
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| | | This workshop focused on research into markets where frictions are present. Several people will be taking part in the discussions: Alessandra Voena (Stanford University), Nina Roussille (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), Francesco Agostinelli (University of Pennsylvania), Patricia Cortés (Boston University, Questrom School of Business), Federico Huneeus (Duke University), and Virginia Minni (University of Chicago, Booth School of Business). |
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| | |  | | | | | Delphine Bosson-Rieutort, Juliette Duc et Erin C. Strumpf, Alexandra Langford-Avelar |
| By 2031, people aged 65 and over will represent 25% of the Quebec population. This is not without cause for concern, as this aging population is likely to experience an increase in multiple health problems in their later years, requiring increasingly complex and costly care. Given the government's desire to promote homecare and move away from a hospital-centric vision, this study makes an important contribution to the debate. |
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| | | | | | | | Paul Gomme, Tatyana Koreshkova et Damba Lkhagvasuren |
| The aging of the population and the increase in chronic diseases are likely to result in a growing demand for elderly care in Canada over the coming decades. Much of this care is provided by informal, unpaid caregivers (an average of 12.3 hours of care per week). This phenomenon is particularly hard on the “sandwich generation”, who juggle work, family and elder care responsibilities. |
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| | | Benoit Dostie, Genevieve Dufour et Fabian Lange |
| The objective of the structuring project on the state of the Quebec labour market is to delineate six different axes of the PRPG's research program (labour market participation, immigration, teaching and education, innovation and productivity, taxation and regulation) by identifying known data, available information and analyses already carried out. Each of these areas is the subject of a separate chapter in this document. This exercise enables us to establish a coherent structure for linking and presenting the different axes. To carry out this exercise, several CIRANO researchers, experts in their fields, participated in the project. |
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| | | | Julien Martin, Kevin Moran et Dalibor Stevanovic |
| The authors highlight the macroeconomic effects of a tariff war between Canada and the United States, using conditional forecasts from a VAR model. The results show that the imposition of tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. leads to a significant contraction in GDP and employment, with effects amplified when counter-tariffs are also put in place. In total, a tariff escalation could cause GDP to fall by 4.2%, corresponding to the destruction of around 700,000 jobs in Canada. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version) |
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| | | Xavier Dufour-Simard, Pierre-Carl Michaud et Michael Smart |
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| | | | CIRANO news on our social networks |
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