Identification-robust moment-based tests for Markov-switching in autoregressive models
This
paper develops tests of the null hypothesis of linearity in the context of
autoregressive models with Markov-switching means and variances. These tests
are robust to the identification failures that plague conventional
likelihood-based inference methods. The approach exploits the moments of normal
mixtures implied by the regime-switching process and uses Monte Carlo test techniques
to deal with the presence of an autoregressive component in the model
specification. The proposed tests have very respectable power in comparison to
the optimal tests for Markov-switching parameters of Carrasco et al. (2014) and
they are also quite attractive owing to their computational simplicity. The new
tests are illustrated with an empirical application to an autoregressive model of
U.S. output growth.
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