Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Impacts: Insights for Canadian Policy

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic implications of various risk scenarios for the Canadian economy, employing a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. We focus on three such scenarios: an aggressive monetary policy easing, an unexpected rise in oil prices and a sudden slowdown in U.S. economic activity. By illustrating how these scenarios would lead the economy to deviate from baseline macroeconomic forecasts, we demonstrate the value, for policy makers, of assessing the potential outcomes of key shocks through this type of analysis. We highlight the varied impacts of these shocks, such as the sensitivity of industrial production and housing markets to monetary easing, the demand-driven gains from rising oil prices, and the contractionary effects of a U.S. recession. Structural decomposition reveals how specific shocks shape economic outcomes, providing insights into their transmission mechanisms. These findings emphasize the importance of incorporating conditional forecasts into policy discussions to better understand potential risks facing the Canadian economy.

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